ADVANCED POT ODDS AND IMPLIED POT ODDS IN POKER HOLDEM

By pot odds, we mean how much you can expect to win in a pot, in relation to how much you need to pay to win it. If the pot odds of a hand are 4-1, you need a chance of at least 4-1 to win, in order for it to be profitable to play. Preferably, the odds against your winning should be lower.

Pot odds, an example

For example: you are playing $2-$4 limit hold’em. You are holding Q♦ J♦ and the board is 9♦ 2♣6♦ A♥. So you will probably not win this hand unless you hit the flush on the river. The chance of your catching the flush is 19.6% (see odds table), giving odds of 4.1-1.

There are $9 in the pot and your opponent bets his last $4. The pot is $13 and it will cost you $4 for a flush draw. The pot odds are 13/4, i.e. 3.25-1. In order to call, you need pot odds of at least 4.1-1, because those are the odds for your catching the flush.

If you play the same pot 100 times running, and call every time, you will win $260 the 20 times you hit the flush (20*13), but lose $320 the 80 times you miss (80*4), i.e. you will lose $60 in the long run. In this case, the pot odds are against you.

Using pot odds correctly

When calculating pot odds, it is important not to ignore other factors as well. In the example above, it is possible that your opponent has the A high flush draw, which means that the third diamond will not help you win the pot after all. There is also a chance that he is bluffing and that your Q♦ J♦ already is the best hand. Another possibility is that your opponent is holding 9, 10 for example, and that you can win the hand on a Jack or Queen on the river as well, in addition to the flush draw. Such possibilities are more difficult to assess, and in order to calculate those situations correct, you need to know your opponent.

IMPLIED POT ODDS

By implied pot odds, we mean that you include money that is not already in the pot, but will probably end up there. Let us go back to the previous example: say your opponent will not go all-in on the turn; he still has chips left. Also, say he acts first and will bet $4 no matter what the turn card is, and then call your raise of $4. Now you are not putting in $4 to win $13, but to win $21. As you will fold your hand, it means that your pot odds are not so good anymore, instead the prospective pot odds are 21-4 (or 5.25-1). Thus, you suddenly have the odds to call, as the odds to hit the flush is 4.1-1.

The complex real world

Of course, in reality, the situations are not so clear cut. If your opponent is very aggressive and usually wants to see the showdown, maybe chances are 80% that he bets another $8 if you hit your flush, and you must adjust the odds accordingly. Then, on average, another 0,8*$8 will be added after the flop, and the odds can only be adjusted upwards by $6.4, to 19.4-4 (or 4.85-1). Those odds are still good enough for you to play the flush draw. But if your opponent is very tight – and only puts in another $8 5% of the time you hit your flush, the pot only goes up by $0.4 on average. Then, your pot odds are 13.4-4 (or 3.35-1), i.e. far too low. You may not yet know how your opponent plays and need to compromise, i.e. putting the odds somewhere in between.

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